rolf’s ramblings
Racing looks to Royal Ascot, the Cheltenham Festival, Glorious Goodwood, York’s Ebor meeting and Cartmel on Bank Holidays to dig us out of a hole.
Oops, sore topic: at Cheltenham’s Trials meeting in February, up popped a pothole that any local Council Highways Department would have been proud of.
Then again, “The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about” sometimes wedded with “any publicity is good publicity”. The publicity for Cheltenham’s hole made the headlines, and it seemed to some a morbid metaphor for racing’s – as a whole - travails. But eh, if only road potholes were rectified as swiftly.
Cheltenham Festival publicity starts before Christmas and if this year the name Constitution Hill has dominated attention the former Champion Hurdler’s name has reached a far wider audience even than the record attendance to see him strut his stuff on a cold February night at far flung Southwell.
And, now it has been confirmed that the crowd’s darling will swerve Cheltenham in the second week in March: there’ll be, crowds in their hundreds of thousands, millions in front of their TV screens; but will feel a little jilted when hundreds of runners and riders line up for jumping’s four-day ‘winter Olympics’ of twenty-eight races – without the main attraction.
A blizzard of ante-post tips and bets have been binned as result of the 7.30 pm at Southwell on February 20th. Post-race superlatives hardly did justice to the performance of Constitution Hill: tears welled around the besieged winner’s enclosure – tears later replicated by fans out of pocket when he was declared a Cheltenham non-runner. A marvellous training performance of the nine-year-old Flat debutant by Nicky Henderson; a sagacious move to declare future intentions so quickly afterwards.
In 2023 (the same year Constitution Hill last won the Champion Hurdle) when City of Troy was brought over to Southwell by Aidan O’Brien in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup, even the Derby winner didn’t get such a reception – but then City of Troy was only there to stretch his legs which, to be fair, was how Constitution Hill treated his career changing move.
Constitution Hill had fallen and been tailed off in his last four races over hurdles. Actually he’s ‘only’ won eight Grade Ones: stablemate Jonbon took in his twelfth at Ascot in February, yet he has never captivated in the same way as his extravagant stablemate.
Number 6 of Phil Bull’s ten commandments “Thou shalt not bet ante-post unless thy selection is a certain runner.” Burnt fingers then for those who re-established Constitution Hill as their ‘good thing’ for the Champion Hurdle. (I’d like to quote Kipling here – so I will: “And the burnt fool’s bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the fire”).
Constitution Hill might have been mentioned in the same breath as past champions – up there with three-time winners Istabraq, See You Then and Persian War, dual champions such as Bula and Night Nurse. There is no ‘heavy breathing’ for this year’s Champion Hurdle. Golden Ace has had to rely on the falls of The New Lion, State Man and Constitution Hill (twice) to secure his Championship last year and Fighting Fifth this term, but he gets round – forever in in the first two.
Even with the sky rocketing price of the precious gold medals for skiing, the awards don’t match Cheltenham’s prize money – going on for £4million. Bald figures (Nicky Henderson, Gordon Elliott and Dan Skelton are blessed with plenty on top, Willie Mullins less so but he’s won the Cheltenham Festival top trainer’s title 11 times) confirm that at the last count Mullins had eleven favourites for this year’s renewals. Last year he had ten winners. He has won the Festival trainer’s crown every year since 2013, bar 2017-18 when Gordon Elliott snuck in.
Elliott had to wait until the 28th race last year to attend the winners’ enclosure. Throughout this Irish season he’s gone toe to toe with Mullins. At Ireland’s Cheltenham equivalent, the Leopardstown Festival, they fought a score draw, five apiece: the home side will have to squeeze where they may in March.
To book a Cheltenham slot the Irish – those Irish-breds that haven’t kept the tills ringing, sold for massive amounts over here - have to come through fire of their domestic competition. For the home side the last occasion 14-time champion jumps trainer Paul Nicholls was crowned at Cheltenham was 2009; six-time champion Nicky Henderson, 2012.
Dan Skelton had just the one winner at the Festival last year, The New Lion, and in ten years this year’s champion trainer elect has only accumulated the same number of winners as Mullins has had Cheltenham titles. As his star has risen four of Skelton’s eleven winners this decade were in the County Handicap Hurdle. He’s moved onto a different level this season and is about to win his first trainer’s championship.
Last year Mullins had to win the Grand National to overtake him: this year, come Aintree, Skelton may be out of sight – especially if he puts his Festival record right though his The New Lion, in fact any winner of the Champion Hurdle, will be seen as a usurper now that Constitution Hill mania has abated.
Incumbent Champion Hurdler Golden Ace was one of the two 25-1 winners at last year’s Festival when there was also a 28-1 shock -nothing compared with the one at 100-1 – which obviously came from a one-horse stable who’d scraped in a Class 5 at some place like Fakenham (apologies to Fakenham).
No, it was a Willie Mullins debutant (!) Poniros in the Triumph Hurdle beating Nicky Henderson’s Lulamba now regarded as one of the meetings bankers in this year’s Arkle! Mullins “doesn’t fancy” Poniros for this year’s Champion Hurdle though surely this renewal is up for grabs.
The test of Cheltenham courses, new and old and cross country, have to be defeated as much as the opposition. On a level playing field Paul Nicholls’s pretender Tutti Quanti bids to emulate Persian War (who went through six trainers in his career) the 1968 Newbury winner of what began life as the Schweppes Hurdle.
Tutti Quanti and Persian War both won this, most valuable, hurdles handicap off topweight the difference being that Tutti Quanti’s rating was two stone behind Persian War’s. Nor was he burdened by those caked in mud behind him at Newbury: Harry Cobden’s colours didn’t even need a trip to the laundrette. He probably wouldn’t have seen Constitution Hill for dust.
The Gold Cup is still the pinnacle. Anything Willie Mullins can do so can Nicky Henderson. Mullins won at the Breeders’ Cup with Ethical Diamond who had a screw in a leg fracture: Henderson’s Jango Baie, last year’s Arkle winner, a close third in the King George, also has a foreleg secured by a screw. Henderson is uncharacteristically bullish about his Gold Cup chances.
Mullins’s Galopin des Champs hasn’t the cachet of three-time winner like Best Mate or dual winner Kauto Star. If the Gold Cup finish reproduces that of Kempton’s Boxing Day King George VI Chase when Jukebox Man, Gaelic Warrior (W Mullins) and Jango Baie were separated by less than a length, then who will care about comparisons?
Everything fell in Marine National’s lap (including his nearest challenger at the last) last year in the Two-Mile Champion Chase. In the meantime, Majborough (W Mullins) has slaughtered him at Leopardstown and last year’s Arkle third is worthy favourite: Mullins other entry Il Etait Temps is third favourite ahead even of the horse that had him beaten when he fell last time at Ascot – leaving the way open for everlasting Jonbon.
Mullins has won the Triumph Hurdle five times in six years. He had the favourite this time, Narciso Has who had all the credentials for the juvenile hurdle championship. But like another leading Festival fancy, Sir Gino, Narciso Has has gone wrong. The impression is that Mullins’s ‘inevitability’ has been challenged this season, but his Selma Vary is promoted to favouritism. The first four in the betting all were purchased on the strength of what they achieved in France and all have justified their purchase. Proactif (W Mullins) also edges out Mange Tout (Elliott) and Maestro Conti (Skelton) in ante-post betting. If Mullins can win with a 100-1 shot one year, he can surely have a say with two bigger bullets.
Is this to be Gordon Elliott’s year? That single 2025 Festival winner, Wodooh, returns as favourite for the Mare’s Hurdle and in a recent assessment of his chances Elliott gave twenty-two names – a mere corps of his army) as having every chance, biggest shout perhaps to El Cairos for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. for which unbeaten Old Park Star (Henderson) is current favourite.
El Cairos has been backwards and forwards across the Irish Sea changing owners and trainers, his value rising almost ten times to £410,000: jumpers are gold dust. There is of course no price tag on a National Treasure.
Such a one, to racing folk at least, was Sir a P McCoy. The National Hunt scene is currently blessed with Sean Bowen who has just reached two hundred winners for the season and is even threatening A P’s ‘unassailable’ records. Bowen’s only placing at the Festival last year was aboard a 33-1 shot in the bumper. The betting is that this year will be more productive for the champion jockey elect – as it will for most punters who disregard the hype – and follow Phil Bull’s commandments.